New satellite measurements show significant discrepancies between IEA estimates and direct observations of Saudi Arabian methane emissions from oil and gas operations

Significant discrepancies exist between satellite measurements and activity-based calculations of methane emissions in Saudi Arabia, with the data from 2024 revealing a 46 per cent gap between the two methodologies

The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported Saudi Arabia’s oil and gas sector emitted 1.74 million tonnes of methane in 2024, representing a 43 per cent decrease from the 3.05 million tonnes recorded in 2022.

However, satellite measurements using the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument aboard the Sentinel-5P satellite, conducted through a joint KAPSARC-Kayrros project, estimated oil and gas methane emissions at just 0.94 million tonnes in 2024, according to Anwar Gasim and Abdelrahman Muhsen, researchers at King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC).

In the paper, ‘Comparing the Latest 2024 Estimates of Methane Emissions for Saudi Arabia, they argue that the IEA’s methodology relies on multiplying country-specific oil and gas production data by emission factors that are scaled from US baseline measurements.

For Saudi Arabia, the IEA progressively lowered its scaling factors between 2022 and 2024, with upstream gas scaling dropping from 0.7 to 0.6 and downstream gas falling from 0.5 to 0.3.

The satellite approach provides full coverage of Saudi Arabia with daily revisit rates, directly measuring methane concentrations rather than relying on calculated emission factors.

Refined satellite estimates for Saudi oil and gas methane emissions ranged from 0.94 to 1.11 million tonnes across the 2022-2024 period, consistently falling below IEA figures.

In all three years examined, the IEA’s methane estimates exceeded the upper bounds of the satellite estimates’ uncertainty ranges for the oil and gas sector.

The waste sector presents an inverse pattern, with satellite measurements consistently higher than IEA estimates.

Satellite data indicated Saudi waste sector emissions of 1.27 million tonnes in 2024, 37 per cent higher than the IEA’s estimate of 0.93 million tonnes.

This divergence suggests the waste sector, not oil and gas, represents the greatest potential for methane reduction in Saudi Arabia.

When benchmarking Saudi Arabia against major oil and gas producers using methane intensity, measured in kg per barrel of oil equivalent (boe), the Kingdom ranks second globally using IEA data at 0.39 kg per boe, behind only Norway at 0.01 kg per boe.

Substituting satellite measurements would reduce Saudi Arabia’s methane intensity to 0.21 kg per boe, though the country would maintain its second-place ranking.

The convergence between IEA and satellite estimates from 2022 to 2024 suggests emerging satellite data is influencing activity-based calculation methodologies.

Methane traps as much heat as almost 30 tonnes of carbon dioxide over a 100-year period, making accurate measurement essential for climate mitigation strategies.

The refinements to satellite measurement techniques include improved plume region definition and updated calculations for splitting emissions from nearby assets.

BY Abdulaziz Khattak