Asia Pacific

Sharp rise in China usage

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Chinese crude oil consumption growing fast

China’s apparent consumption of crude oil and refined products rose 9.3 per cent in 2006 from the previous year, the commerce ministry said, a far faster rate than analysts had estimated.

China used 346.55 million tonnes of oil last year, the ministry said in a statement on its Web site (mofcom.gov.cn), but it did not detail how it had calculated the figure.
It may have used data on government and commercial oil stock levels, analysts said. China does not publish these figures, making it impossible for non-government analysts to include stock builds and draw downs in their calculations.
The International Energy Agency said China’s apparent oil demand rose last year by 6.4 per cent to 7.1 million bpd.
Beijing’s estimates of its own demand growth are often out of step with international ones. For 2005 the official Xinhua agency reported that demand fell by 0.3 percent, while most foreign analysts estimated growth of around 3 to 4 per cent.
The official data might suggest that stockpiles were building up in 2005 and drawn down in 2006, explaining the discrepancy with overseas calculations.
However, that sort of demand volatility in the world’s second largest oil user – as great a concern in tight global markets as actual growth in consumption – would be a worrying sign, analysts said.
Analysts usually use “apparent” to highlight a lack of access to the stockpile data needed to assess real consumption. The ministry may also not have had access to the highly sensitive figures.