A new policy report warns that the ongoing crisis in the Middle East is significantly affecting global economic stability, with African countries expected to see growth decline by up to 0.2 per cent.
The findings were presented by the African Union Commission, the African Development Bank Group (AfDB), the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA), and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
The report, titled ‘Impacts of the Conflict in the Middle East on African Economies’, highlights that African economies already recovering from Covid-19, the Russia-Ukraine war, and rising global tariffs are now facing renewed pressure.
It identifies disruptions in trade routes, energy markets, and financial systems as key transmission channels.
Kevin Urama, Chief Economist at AfDB, stressed the strategic importance of maritime chokepoints, noting that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has intensified global transport and trade disruptions.
According to the report, the main economic impacts include rising prices of oil, food, and fertilisers, alongside volatility in currency and capital markets.
Claver Gatete, Executive Secretary of the ECA, warned of Africa’s heavy dependence on Middle Eastern energy supplies.
He said: “80 per cent of the oil imported into Africa comes from this region, as well as 50 per cent of refined petroleum,” he said, adding that “31 African countries were already experiencing currency depreciation.”
Urama urged governments to avoid reactive fiscal decisions and instead prioritise stability and coordination.
The report recommends inflation management, prudent use of windfall revenues in oil-exporting states, and targeted social protection for vulnerable populations.
However, it cautions against broad subsidies, as they risk long term fiscal imbalances.
At the global policy level, Amina Mohammed, UN Deputy Secretary-General, emphasised continuity in development goals, stating: “We must work to ensure that the Sustainable Development Goals under the 2030 Agenda and Agenda 2063 are achieved,” she stated.
Marie-Laure Akin-Olugbagde, Senior Vice-President of AfDB, stressed the need for collective action.
“There is a need for global coordination, as no country or institution can face these shocks alone. In addition, a rapid response is essential, as was the case during the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, and people must be placed at the center of interventions,” she said.
Ahunna Ezioknwa, UNDP Regional Bureau for Africa Director, highlighted resilience and innovation.
“The shocks affect us deeply, and we have no choice but to be resilient and African countries have the means to respond,” she said.
“In Africa, we need to win the fight for energy independence. We must invest in domestic solutions and encourage young people to engage in innovation, digital technology, and artificial intelligence,” she added.
In response to escalating pressures, Afreximbank approved a $10 billion Gulf Crisis Response Programme (GCRP) to stabilise African and Caribbean economies.
Launched on March 31, 2026, the programme aims to sustain imports, support exporters, and strengthen long-term resilience in energy, logistics, and infrastructure.
Dr George Elombi, President and Chairman of Afreximbank, said: “This crisis response programme is in tune with our DNA. We understand how our economies work and the pain points associated with these transitory crises. The programme will support African countries in adjusting smoothly to the crisis while strengthening their resilience to future shocks through interventions that transform the structure of their economies.”
The initiative builds on earlier emergency responses such as Covid-19 and Ukraine crisis support, reinforcing Africa’s growing emphasis on coordinated resilience, trade integration, and economic diversification.
