The US sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) market is entering a period of technological expansion and policy uncertainty, with new alcohol-to-jet (AtJ) and power-to-liquid (PtL) projects expected to shape production over the coming decade, according to IDTechEx.

The research firm said the 2025 “Big Beautiful Bill” maintained federal tax credits for renewable diesel but reduced the SAF credit under the Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit from $1.75 to $1 per gallon.

The change has created uncertainty for US biofuel and e-fuel producers despite continued investment in new facilities.

LanzaJet opened its $300 million Freedom Pines facility in Georgia in November 2025, becoming the first commercial AtJ SAF plant. The facility can produce up to 10 million gallons annually and can adjust its output between SAF and renewable diesel depending on market demand and policy conditions.

The plant uses Technip Energies’ Hummingbird technology to convert ethanol into ethylene, with the process designed to improve carbon selectivity and potentially produce other industrial chemicals.

Meanwhile, Infinium’s Project Roadrunner in Texas is pursuing PtL technology, using carbon dioxide and hydrogen to produce synthetic fuels.

The project will be powered partly by a 150-megawatt wind energy array to support green hydrogen production.

Infinium also acquired Greyrock Technology in 2025, gaining access to its GreyCat catalyst, which is designed to improve the efficiency of Fischer-Tropsch synthesis and reduce downstream processing requirements.

The facility is expected to begin operations in 2027.

Both projects use a build-own-operate model and are considered first-of-a-kind developments. IDTechEx said their long-term competitiveness will depend heavily on feedstock and energy costs.

The research firm said AtJ production remains dependent on ethanol availability, while PtL economics could improve if expanding US power generation leads to lower energy costs.

The US Energy Information Administration expects 141 gigawatts of additional grid capacity by 2030.

IDTechEx expects the SAF market to evolve significantly as production scales up, with 11 ASTM-approved pathways currently available. It said technological development, energy and feedstock economics and future policy support will influence the competitive landscape through the next decade. -OGN/TradeArabia News Service