Global renewable power capacity is forecast to increase by almost 4,800 gigawatts (GW) between 2026 and 2031, nearly 60 per cent more than the additions recorded over the previous six-year period, as countries accelerate the transition to domestic energy sources amid growing energy security concerns, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The IEA's Renewables 2026 report highlights how disruptions to global energy markets following the outbreak of the Iran war in late February have strengthened government efforts to reduce dependence on imported fuels and exposure to volatile energy prices.

Solar photovoltaic (PV) technology is expected to account for more than three-quarters of global renewable capacity additions through 2031, followed by onshore wind.

The report identifies a widening geographical spread of renewable energy investment, with India, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa expected to record significant growth.

For the first time, renewable capacity additions in emerging and developing economies outside China are forecast to match those in advanced economies over the 2026-2031 period.

China will remain the largest contributor to global renewable capacity growth, although its share is expected to decline from more than 60 per cent in 2025 to an average of 53 per cent during the forecast period, reflecting changes to its renewable energy policies.

India is projected to become the world's second-largest growth market, with its total renewable capacity more than doubling by 2031.

Meanwhile, renewable capacity additions across Southeast Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa are expected to almost triple compared with the previous six-year period.

“Previously, environmental concerns were the policy priority behind the growth of renewables, whose falling costs have made them a competitive option in many markets – but today, it’s mainly energy security that is driving renewables’ expansion as more and more countries seek to reduce their exposure to imported fuels,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. “The new chapter of the renewables growth story is a truly global one as their deployment spreads well beyond major markets into every corner of the world. This is making them a key pillar of the global power sector. Today, they account for a third of global electricity generation; in the next five years, they will be getting closer to half of it.”

The expansion is also being driven by households and small businesses seeking affordable and reliable electricity supplies.

 Rooftop solar PV installations are gaining traction in markets facing high fuel prices and unreliable power supplies.

According to the report, these systems have already helped improve electricity services for around 70 million households worldwide.

Renewable energy use in transport is also expected to increase, with consumption forecast to rise by more than 60 per cent by 2031, covering approximately 6 per cent of global transport energy demand.

Renewable electricity used by electric vehicles is expected to account for around 45 per cent of this growth, while biofuels will make the second-largest contribution.

Several countries, particularly in Southeast Asia and Latin America, have increased biofuel blending mandates in response to higher fuel prices and supply challenges.

Consequently, the IEA has revised its biofuel growth forecast upwards by 40 per cent compared with last year's report.

The report also underscores the importance of diversifying renewable energy supply chains as global deployment accelerates.

India is emerging as an alternative manufacturing hub, with its share of global solar PV module production expected to nearly double to 17 per cent over the next five years, helping reduce concentration in the market.

However, the IEA warns that electricity grid infrastructure and system flexibility must keep pace with renewable capacity expansion.

Investment in electricity networks and reforms to accelerate grid connections will be essential to integrating new solar and wind installations.

The volume of advanced-stage renewable energy and storage projects awaiting grid connections worldwide increased by 60 per cent over the past year to 3,000 GW, equivalent to four times the wind and solar PV capacity connected to grids last year.

Battery storage deployment is accelerating and is expected to play an important role in improving electricity system flexibility.

The report also highlights the potential of digital technologies, including artificial intelligence, to shift electricity demand towards periods of higher renewable generation.

The IEA says investment in grids, battery storage and demand-side flexibility will be critical to ensuring that renewable energy growth delivers more secure, affordable and reliable electricity supplies worldwide. -OGN/TradeArabia News Service