The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its forecast for natural gas inventories at the end of November, expecting stocks to be almost 70 billion cubic feet (Bcf) higher than projected in October, as warmer weather at the start of the month reduces demand and eases pressure on prices.

In its November 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the EIA forecasts that higher storage levels will help moderate natural gas prices throughout the winter.

The Henry Hub spot price is expected to average $2.87 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) between November and March, 16% below the agency's October forecast.

The EIA expects the Henry Hub price to average $3.37/MMBtu in 2026 and $2.88/MMBtu in 2027, according to its latest projections.

Meanwhile, Brent crude oil prices are forecast to average $104 per barrel in November and $99/b in December, before declining to an annual average of $86/b in 2027 as additional supplies from the Middle East reach global markets and inventories rebuild. However, continued shipping disruptions could trigger short-term price volatility.

The agency has also raised its outlook for US retail fuel prices, reflecting expectations that global refined fuel supplies will remain tight through the end of 2027.

Diesel is now forecast to average $5.03 per gallon in 2027, compared with $4.49 in the previous forecast, while gasoline is projected at $3.73 per gallon, up from $3.56.

US crude oil production is expected to reach a record 14.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2027, up from 13.9 million b/d in 2026.

The EIA said commercial crude inventories fell to their lowest October level since 2014 as exports increased and imports declined, but stocks are expected to recover in 2027 as net imports rise.

US liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports are also projected to increase, reaching approximately 19 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2027, compared with 15 Bcf/d in 2025, supported by new export capacity and expansions at existing facilities.

In the power sector, US electricity generation is forecast to reach a record nearly 4,390 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026, representing a 2.7% increase from 2025.

 Higher business electricity consumption and warmer-than-average summer temperatures, which boosted air-conditioning demand, contributed to the increase.

The EIA expects utility-scale solar to account for most electricity generation growth over the forecast period as additional capacity comes online.

Solar's share of US electricity generation is projected to rise from 7% in 2025 to 10% in 2027, while natural gas is expected to remain the largest source, accounting for 39%. -OGN/TradeArabia News Service