Gazprom ... aiming high

Russia’s Gazprom has again revised upwards its gas export revenue forecast for this year and sees sales exceeding $65 billion as European prices will hit an all-time high in the fourth quarter.

Alexander Medvedev, deputy chief executive of the world’s largest gas producer, which supplies a quarter of Europe’s gas needs, said he also hoped that a deal with BP and TNK-BP on an asset swap could be done before the end of this year.
“I announced in front of the shareholders meeting in June that we will (set) a new record and this record will be even higher than I announced,” Medvedev, who spoke English, told the 2008 Reuters Russia Investment Summit.
He said revenues may exceed $65 billion compared to his earlier forecast of $64 billion and $39.5 billion last year.
Gas prices are pegged to oil and refined products prices but change with a lag of six to nine months.
Medvedev said gas prices in Europe will hit $500 per 1,000 cubic metres at the end of this year, a $100 increase from prices earlier this year and double last year’s average prices of $260.
“Probably it (revenues) will be slightly less (in 2009) if the trend for declining crude  and product prices prevails,” he said.
State-controlled Gazprom hopes to increase its European market share to 33 per cent by 2015 from 25 per cent now and relies heavily on gas imports from Central Asia to meet demand in Russia and on countries such as Ukraine.
Pricing talks are still going on with Central Asia and therefore no price has yet been set for Ukraine, which is paying $179.50 this year.
Analysts watch pricing talks with Ukraine closely after a previous pricing dispute severely reduced Russian gas transit to Europe. 
Gazprom has threatened to raise prices for Ukraine to European levels from 2009 while many Ukrainian politicians have said the economy could only withstand a price of $250-$300.
Asked whether such a price was possible for Ukraine next year, Medvedev said: “It is difficult to imagine such prices, given that the average European price will be over $500”. Medvedev said Gazprom hopes to buy control in the giant Kovykta gas field from BP’s Russian venture, TNK-BP, after a fierce corporate conflict between the British major and the firm’s Russia-connected shareholders delayed the deal. A broader deal involving an assets swap with Gazprom, BP and TNK-BP should follow shortly. “It would be desirable if it happens before the end of the year. The field cannot sleep forever,” he said.