Europe is set to deepen its reliance on US liquefied natural gas (LNG), with the US expected to supply two-thirds of the continent’s LNG imports in 2026, according to new research by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA).

IEEFA’s latest European LNG Tracker and EU Gas Flows Tracker showed that European imports of US LNG more than tripled between 2021 and 2025 as countries reduced dependence on Russian pipeline gas. 

Ongoing disruptions to Qatari LNG exports are expected to push the US ahead of Norway as Europe’s largest gas supplier in 2026, with US LNG potentially accounting for 80 per cent of EU LNG imports by 2028.

The report warned that US LNG remains the most expensive option for European buyers and argued that Europe’s shift from pipeline gas to LNG has created new energy security risks. 

Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, lead energy analyst at IEEFA, said Europe’s growing dependence on LNG has exposed the region to volatile prices and supply disruptions.

Despite efforts under the EU’s AccelerateEU strategy to cut gas demand, Europe continues expanding LNG infrastructure.

IEEFA forecasts European gas consumption could decline 14 per cent between 2025 and 2030, while LNG demand may fall by 23 per cent, raising concerns that planned LNG terminals could become underutilised.

Meanwhile, Russian LNG imports into the EU rose 16 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, reaching a record high driven by imports into France, Spain and Belgium.