US gasoline prices have probably peaked for 2009 and could face increasing downward pressure as seasonally higher summer driving demand fades into the rear-view mirror.

 Motor fuel inventories have climbed for six straight weeks, gaining even around the Fourth of July holiday, traditionally the peak of demand in the United States.

“This year is unusual because inventories are high and gasoline demand is very poor. So far we haven’t seen much of a driving season,” said Antoine Halff, vice president of research at Newedge Group, who expects prices to fall.

Halff and other analysts say demand has peaked. Any gains in August would be a surprise that could lead to some stock draws, but shouldn’t set off alarms that supplies are dwindling dramatically. 

If there is an uptick in demand in the coming weeks, it should be short-lived, said Tim Evans, analyst with Citi Futures Perspective.

Retail regular gasoline averaged $2.465 per gallon, down from $2.683 a month ago and well below the year-ago average of $4.055, according to travel and auto group AAA. Pump prices peaked at $4.114 in July 2008, shortly after crude oil hit a record above $147 a barrel. 

August gasoline futures surged more than 4 per cent to about $1.91 a gallon on Nymex inching closer to the year high of about $2.10 set in June, as September crude fetched about $67 per barrel amid some market worries that gasoline stocks are below year-ago levels. 

Experts say a major Wall Street or oil rally could further lift gasoline prices. But they said the latest spike is not grounded in solid fundamentals, with inventories still 2 per cent above the five-year average. 

With seven weeks remaining before the Labor Day weekend, that marks the end of the summer driving season, we see this as a relatively comfortable cushion of stocks,” Evans said. 

According to the US Department of Energy, gasoline supplies rose 800,000 barrels last week to 215.4 million barrels, just below the year-ago level of 217.1 million barrels when prices surged to a peak.