A report from Robert Gordon University (RGU) has warned that the UK risks losing tens of thousands of offshore energy jobs by 2030 unless urgent and coordinated action is taken.

The report outlines three offshore energy workforce scenarios (low, mid, and high cases) and up to £350 billion ($476 billion) of future investment in the UK’s offshore energy sector between 2025 and 2035. Each scenario scrutinises the impact on UK offshore energy job numbers of several factors, including government policies, industry dynamics, and investor sentiment.

The report suggests a 2030 UK offshore energy workforce requirement (oil, gas, and renewables) of between 125,000 and 163,000 jobs, compared to today’s figure of approximately 154,000.

However, the specific UK oil and gas workforce is forecast to fall from 115,000 in 2024 to between 57,000 and 71,000 by the early 2030s.

In the lower case, the North Sea oil and gas workforce could shrink by approximately 400 jobs – the same number lost as a result of the closure of the Grangemouth refinery – every two weeks for the next five years.

Under a high-case scenario, workforce demand levels across the UK could hit over 210,000, but this will require the delivery of an additional 35 GW (or close to 6 GW per year) of offshore wind and sustaining UK oil and gas activities for an extended period, similar to policies applied in Norway, Denmark, and the Netherlands.

With nearly 1 in 30 of Scotland’s working population currently employed in or supporting the offshore energy industry, the potential risks for Scotland’s supply chain and workforce are substantial.

If Scotland fails to capture the full range of offshore energy opportunities and the oil and gas decline continues to accelerate, the Scottish-based offshore energy workforce could decrease from approximately 75,000 in 2024 to between 45,000 and 63,000 by the early 2030s.

"The UK’s lack of joined up action means that the window of opportunity for delivering a just transition is closing," said Professor Paul de Leeuw, Director of the Energy Transition Institute at Robert Gordon University in Aberdeen.

"With investment at risk and renewables projects facing delays, the findings underline the present-day situation for the UK offshore energy industry and its stakeholders. The big prize of a significant jobs gain is still within our collective reach. Inaction or simply slow progress will mean that UK offshore energy job numbers overall could drop by almost 20 per cent to 125,000 by 2030, making the path towards net zero even harder to negotiate."