Seven leading producers in the Opec+ are likely to agree to a modest increase in July oil output when they meet on June 7, despite ongoing supply disruptions linked to the Iran war, four sources told Reuters.

The group is expected to raise its monthly production target by around 188,000 barrels per day (bpd), the sources said.

Opec+ kept output targets unchanged during the first quarter of 2026 but has increased production every month since April despite the conflict.

The pace of the monthly output hikes has slowed since May following the departure of the UAE from the alliance.

Analysts and delegates said the exit may reduce the group’s influence over the market but could improve internal cohesion.

Officials from Opec, Saudi Arabia and Russia did not immediately respond to Reuters requests for comment.

According to Opec data, the group’s oil production fell to 33.19 million bpd in April from 42.77 million bpd in February, with Gulf producers accounting for a 9.9 million bpd decline.

The war has particularly affected exporters with spare production capacity, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait, as well as the UAE before its exit from the alliance.

The seven Opec+ members scheduled to meet are Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Russia and Oman.

Two additional Opec+ meetings planned for June 7 are not expected to result in policy changes, the sources said.

A separate group-wide production cut of 2 million bpd agreed in 2022 is due to remain in place through the end of 2026, although it included a 160,000 bpd reduction previously allocated to the UAE, Reuters reported.