US marketed natural gas production is forecast to reach a record 122.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2026, surpassing the previous high of 118.5 Bcf/d set in 2025, according to the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) August Short-Term Energy Outlook.
Production averaged 121.3 Bcf/d in the first half of 2026,
up 4 per cent, or 4.6 Bcf/d, from the same period last year.
Most of the increase is concentrated in the Permian region
of Texas and New Mexico and the Haynesville region of Louisiana and Texas.
The EIA said the US remained the world’s largest
natural gas producer from 2009 through 2024, the latest year for which global
production data is available.
Permian gas production is expected to average 29.2 Bcf/d
this year, up 6 per cent from 2025. Output in the region is driven largely by
associated gas produced alongside crude oil, making production sensitive to oil
prices.
West Texas Intermediate crude prices averaged $84 a barrel
through July 2026, compared with $65 a barrel in 2025.
The higher prices are above estimated breakeven levels in
the Permian, supporting oil-focused drilling and, consequently, associated
natural gas production.
A rising gas-to-oil ratio is also contributing to higher
Permian gas output as reservoir pressure declines during production, making
natural gas easier to extract relative to oil.
Meanwhile, Haynesville natural gas production rose 1.1
Bcf/d, or 7 per cent, in the first half of 2026 from a year earlier.
The EIA expects output there to increase 9 per cent, or 1.3 Bcf/d,
for the full year.
Unlike the Permian, where drilling is primarily
oil-directed, Haynesville operators focus mainly on natural gas, making
production more closely linked to Henry Hub prices.
The EIA expects Henry Hub prices to average $3.44 per
million British thermal units in 2026, down 2 per cent from 2025.
Despite the region’s higher drilling costs due to its deep
formations, production remains economical.
Its proximity to Gulf Coast LNG export terminals and major industrial gas consumers is also supporting continued drilling activity.-OGN/TradeArabia News Service