Emissions need to be cut 43 per cent by 2030 to limit temperature rise

The latest report from the IPCC indicates that greenhouse gas emissions need to be cut 43 per cent by 2030, compared to 2019 levels

The UN Climate Change has decried insufficient efforts to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 deg Celsius and meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.

In its Nationally Determined Contributions Synthesis Report 2023, officials said governments combined are "taking baby steps" to avert the climate crisis, and called upon them to make bold strides forward at COP28 in Dubai, to "get on track".

"COP28 must be a clear turning point. Governments must not only agree what stronger climate actions will be taken but also start showing exactly how to deliver them," said Simon Stiell, Executive-Secretary of UN Climate Change.

He has stressed that the conclusion of the first global stocktake at COP28 is where nations can regain momentum to scale up their efforts across all areas and get on track with meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement.

"The Global Stocktake report released by UN Climate Change this year clearly shows where progress is too slow. But it also lays out the vast array of tools and solutions put forward by countries. Billions of people expect to see their governments pick up this toolbox and put it to work," Stiell said.

The latest science from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicates that greenhouse gas emissions need to be cut 43 per cent by 2030, compared to 2019 levels.

This is critical to limit temperature rise to 1.5 deg Celsius by the end of this century and avoid the worst impacts of climate change, including more frequent and severe droughts, heatwaves and rainfall.

"Every fraction of a degree matters, but we are severely off track. COP28 is our time to change that," Stiell said. "It’s time to show the massive benefits now of bolder climate action: more jobs, higher wages, economic growth, opportunity and stability, less pollution and better health."

UN Climate Change analysed the NDCs of 195 Parties to the Paris Agreement, including 20 new or updated NDCs submitted up until September 25, 2023. In line with the findings from last year’s analysis, today’s report shows that while emissions are no longer increasing after 2030, compared to 2019 levels, they are still not demonstrating the rapid downward trend science says is necessary this decade.

If the latest available NDCs are implemented, current commitments will increase emissions by about 8.8 per cent, compared to 2010 levels.

This is a marginal improvement over last year’s assessment, which found countries were on a path to increase emissions 10.6 per cent by 2030, compared to 2010 levels.

By 2030 emissions are projected to be 2 per cent below 2019 levels, highlighting that peaking of global emissions will occur within this decade.

"Using the Global Stocktake to plan ahead, we can make COP28 a game-changer. And provide a springboard for a two-year climate action surge," Stiell said.