The Middle East will contribute the largest growth share of natural gas supply, accounting for one-third of the total, says a key outlook report.

Gas production in the region is expected to jump to 1,190 billion cu m (bcm) by 2050 from the current 520 bcm, making it the world’s second-largest producer. By 2050, the Middle East will be supplying almost 22 per cent of natural gas globally by 2050, compared to 17 per cent now.

This was forecast in the Global Gas Outlook 2050 launched recently by the Doha-headquartered Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF), an international governmental organisation that represents 72 per cent of the global proven gas reserves.

North America, currently the world’s largest gas producer, will maintain its position until the end of the forecast period, the report said.

Meanwhile, resource-rich Africa, which is positioning itself as a key layer in oil and gas, will see its global share jump from 6 per cent in 2021 to gaining more than 11 per cent share by 2050.

Europe will be the only region where natural gas production is forecast to fall. Its share of global production will be only 2 per cent by the end of the forecast period.

Globally, natural gas will raise its share in the energy mix from 23 to 26 per cent. This will come in the backdrop of global primary energy demand rising by 22 per cent, reaching 17,865 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) by 2050.

Climate change policies will continue to play a crucial role. However, energy security, affordability and sustainability shall remain equally important, driving natural gas demand by 36 per cent to 5,460 bcm in 2050.

Eng Mohamed Hamel, Secretary General of the GECF, emphasised that all energy sources and technologies will be required to satisfy the world’s growing energy needs, while improving air quality and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

The Asia Pacific, Middle East, and Africa regions will be responsible for the bulk of future gas demand growth, with the former contributing to half of the global net demand increase during the outlook period. LNG demand will also more than double in volume.

To meet the growing natural gas demand, a total of $9.7 trillion upstream investment will be required over the forecast period. Region-wise, Africa will need to invest $1.7 trillion, and the Middle East $1.11 trillion to increase production.

By Abdulaziz Khattak