Iraq output will rise

Saudi Arabia's oil minister says oil prices stabilising at $50-$60 per barrel would be 'satisfactory' to producers, consumers and investors.

Ali Al Naimi told pan-Arab newspaper Al-Hayat the producer group can't lower production when oil prices are approaching $70 per barrel.
The minister said oil markets are currently tense due to psychological factors, but that Opec would work to avoid fluctuations in prices 'from $40 per barrel, to $50 per barrel to $70 per barrel.'
He said the producer group is studying what is causing this instability in the oil price - be they economic or other reasons - and when Opec understands the fluctuations, the members will then be in a position to act on them.
Saudi Arabia is producing 9.5 million bpd and remains committed to its policy of keeping spare capacity of 1.5 million bpd for emergencies. Capacity today stands at 11 million bpd, but will rise to 12.5 million bpd by 2009.
'Global oil demand is rising and we must keep building our capacity and protect our spare capacity,' he said.
Naimi said Iraqi output will rise to levels of five million to seven million bpd in the future thanks to reserves and investment once stability spreads, but the time frame is uncertain.
'Since the beginning of the Iraq war, it was said Iraqi production will be at five million bpd in 2006, but that didn't happen,' he said. 'Iraqi production will return, but the question is when,' Naimi said
Naimi said an increase in Iraqi output wouldn't cause oversupplies of oil because other maturing producing areas, such as the North Sea, are being phased out.
He also shrugged off the possibility that consuming nations would reduce their reliance on hydrocarbons through efficiency and alternative fuels, saying all studies point to oil and gas as the main source of fuel until after 2030, with oil continuing to account for 40 per cent of the energy balance and studies also showing that percentage will rise.
Opec's agreement to leave its oil output unchanged was unanimous, Naimi said.
Naimi said it was 'completely not true' that Iran had proposed a cut in the group's production.
He said that he did not think Opec would need to cut output at its next meeting in March, but it was too early to be sure.
Naimi said there had been no discussion at Opec's meeting of Iran's row with the West over its atomic programme.
'All the member countries know one thing. They all want money and we are a business organisation not a political organisation. We are energy ministers not foreign ministers.'
He pledged the cartel would continue in its aim to keep oil markets well supplied and strive to reduce market volatility.
'Opec dedicated itself to stability of supply and seeks to lesson volatility in the market,' Naimi said.
'We have come in and replaced any lost supplies from anywhere,' he added.
He added that a run-up in oil prices to near record highs was linked to geopolitical concerns.
'There is absolutely no relationship between price and supply and demand,' he said.