Opec has raised its global oil demand forecast for 2026 and trimmed its estimate for supply growth from the US and other producers outside the wider Opec+ group, pointing to a tighter market.

The outlook for higher demand and a drop in supply growth from outside Opec+ would make it easier for Opec+ to proceed with its plan to pump more barrels to regain market share after years of cuts aimed at supporting the market.

World oil demand will rise by 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026, up 100,000 barrels per day from the previous forecast.

The forecasts are at the higher end of the industry range, as the agency expects a slower energy transition than some other forecasters such as the International Energy Agency, which expects world demand to rise by just 700,000 barrels per day this year.

Opec also increased its forecast for world economic growth slightly this year to 3.0 per cent as US President Donald Trump’s administration signs some trade deals and the economies of India, China, and Brazil outperform expectations. Brent crude was steady after Opec published the report, trading close to $66 a barrel.

The drop in oil prices this year, partly due to Opec+ output hikes and concern about US tariffs, has put pressure on the economics of US shale output.

Opec’s report said US output of tight oil, another term for shale, will decline by 100,000 barrels per day in 2026 versus last month’s outlook for flat output year-on-year.